“Since Hurricane Charley (2004) the 48-hour error has been cut in half,” from 120 nautical miles to 50, Franklin said. The size of today’s cone shows the vast improvements in track forecasts over four decades. Between 19, the two-day track forecast error dropped from roughly 200 nautical miles to about 50 miles, Franklin said: "The 72-hour errors dropped from 300 nautical miles on average to 75." WHAT IS STORM SURGE? Graphics explain the deadly weather event Four decades show big improvement in forecasting STORM TRACKER: Charting the path of where tropical storm is headed next They’ve gotten better, but they’re not perfect yet.” “It’s a good illustration of where we are with uncertainty in track forecasts. “But again, when you have a storm making an approach at an oblique angle to the coast like Charley did, and like Ian is doing, it doesn’t take very large track errors to make a big difference as to where those impacts are going to occur. “I think the track forecast numbers for (Ian) are going to be pretty good by historical standards,” Franklin said. The track shifted west and northward over the weekend because forecasters couldn’t say for sure how Ian would react to those other influences in the Gulf, Franklin said. It’s important for people to understand the uncertainties in the forecasts, said James Franklin, a retired hurricane specialist who wrote many forecasts for the hurricane center. That’s the point of the cone. Ian tended to track slightly faster than anticipated by the forecast models, he said. “It was a complicated mess of an upper-trough over the western Gulf of Mexico, a ridge building into the Midwest, a trough over the East Coast, as well as the strength of Ian.” “NHC forecasters have been very consistent with advertising that the uncertainty in the track forecast was larger than normal,” Klotzbach said. “If we look at the forecast track of Ian with the five-day cone, its soon-to-be landfall point was pretty much always in the forecast cone, just right on the edge,” said Phil Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University and lead author of its seasonal hurricane outlooks. Ultimately, Ian made landfall more than 100 miles to the south, very near the first position estimate for a potential Florida landfall. Petersburg area could get its first direct hit since a 1921 hurricane. The potential track forecast ignited fears the densely populated Tampa and St. In the days leading up to landfall, the forecast shifted the center of the track as far north as Florida’s Big Bend on Sunday and also hovered over Tampa Bay on Sunday and Monday. Hurricane Ian barreled into the southwest Florida coast on Wednesday as a Category 4 monster just miles from where the National Hurricane Center initially projected it could hit. So were the weekend forecasts wrong? Here's what experts say.Ultimately, Ian made landfall 100 miles to the south.An early track forecast ignited fears that densely populated Tampa and St.
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